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FoGT vs MMH: Climate Models vs Weather Models, Null Hypotheses vs Bullshit

By Gavin Kirsch, FoGT Chief Climate Modeler

manuscript to be published in popular online weather comic Atmospheric Science Letters by our Friends Ross McKitrick and Steve McIntyre, along with some guy called Herman, has lately been generating some buzz in certain parts of the blogosphere (although not as much as a way funnier one by another couple of statisticians who manage to conclude both that 1997-2006 was 80% likely to have been the warmest 10 years in the last 1000 and that Michael Mann was wrong). These three amigos, MMH - who shouldn’t be confused with MBH, but the H gives them a hint of warmalarmist familiarity and the M&M jokes were getting old - use ‘new’ methods to re-roast an old chestnut (or rather, marshmallow): the comparison between observed and modeled temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Read More...