Lewandowsky Refudiated: Greenhouse Denial is caused by Prostate Enlargement
01/01/13 15:49 Filed in: Moritz
To a man whose only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Thus when cognitive psychologist Stephan Lewandowsky sought an explanation for greenhouse denial, he sought a psychological cause in a tendency to conspiratorial thinking.
Sadly for Lewandowsky, the refudiation came fast on the heels of the backlash. 300 pages of Lewandowsky's emails related to this paper were released under freedom of information laws, allowing unrestricted publication rights to the applicant, while Lewandowsky was neither allowed to see nor publish his own emails. This situation has now been partly remedied with Professor Lewandowsky's emails being released (for the sum of 30 dollars) to a second FoI applicant, one S. Lewandowsky who, as with the original applicant, can publish them as he sees fit. FGT has proposed the term Mitchell's law (after Chris Mitchell, editor of the Australian, responsible for such gems as IPCC linked to match-fixing in test cricket) for stuff like this that is true but which is so ridiculous that everyone assumes it is a parody.
All this effort in attacking Lewandowsky seems wasted, since new data is now indicating a much stronger epidemiological connection between greenhouse denial and prostate enlargement.
Such an association between greenhouse denial and prostate enlargement had long been suspected by those who had observed the demographics of the Lavoisier group in Australia, the Friends of Science (movie for old men) in Canada and the science board of the Australian Climate Science Coalition in Australia and Lord Lawson's Global warming policy foundation in the UK. FGT has explored such urological links Lack of Solar Activity causes erectile Dysfunction in Climate Change Deniers Other climate/urology links had been raised previously by FGT Is Monckton a Wanker and Why it Matters positing a desire for higher CO2 for enhancing auto-eroticism. However it seems that no-one has put these cases together in a meta-analysis.
Such difficult and controversial statistical methodology has now been rendered unnecessary with new data taken from the list of signatories to Tom Harris' letter to Obi Wan Kenobe. Overwhelmingly these signatories fall into the demographic in which prostate enlargement peaks. For a symptom-free man of 46 years, the risk of developing Benign prostate enlargement over the next 30 years is 45%. Incidence rates increase from 3 cases per 1000 man-years at age 45–49 years, to 38 cases per 1000 man-years by the age of 75–79 years. Whereas the prevalence rate is 2.7% for men aged 45–49, it increases to 24% by the age of 80 years. Similar demographics apply for prostate cancer and so the clinical significance of greenhouse denial as a men's health issue remains unclear. This contrasts to the demographics for other conspiracy theories such as the concentration of younger female conspiracy theorists in the anti-vaccination lobby.
In itself, the statistical association between groups subject to prostate enlargement and groups subject to greenhouse denial does not show which is the cause and which is the effect. It is the time history that shows the causation. Prostate enlargement has been relatively static over time and has not spiked as greenhouse denial soared. Clearly, what has happened is that a large pool of enlarged prostates have been around for centuries, ready to trigger denial of global warming just as soon as there was any warming to deny.
As with the link between smoking and lung cancer, the link between prostate enlargement and greenhouse denial is neither inevitable nor essential. Nevertheless, greenhouse deniers who are younger than average, or more rabid than average (or both, as in cases like senator Bernadi) might be well advised to see their doctors for regular checks.
Prof Dr Moritz Lorenz. Sarah Palin School of Geography, Economics and Quantum Computing, University of Narbethong, West Island Campus, NZ