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Letter to Dr. Patrick Michaels, Cato Institute

[We have not received an answer by Dr. Michaels]

Dear Dr. Michaels,

RE: recent satellite temperature trends of the lower atmosphere


I am wondering about recent temperature trends. Our Calgary colleagues the Friends of Science (FoS;, claim that the earth has been cooling since 2002. They even advertised this cooling in recent radio ads:

The FoS base this on a T-t plot similar to UAH's. The difference is that theirs constitutes the average between the two principal satellite data sets (UAH, Remote Sensing Systems). While there is essentially no difference between the two, I cannot see the 0.12 C drop since 2002 claimed by the FoS. In fact, T has been shooting up recently and the long-term trend since 1979 is also clearly up. The period between 2002 and 2007 is simply a high plateau, a temporary Tibet so to speak - until we recently reached the Himalayas. Do you see any cooling?  We don't have any credibility with the general public when we preach global cooling when warming takes place. As far as I remember, you said something like that in your keynote at the 2008 Heartland Climate conference.

In fact, the curve segment since January 2002 looks like a miniature hockey stick. 

Secondly, satellites that measure the outgoing vs the incoming radiation confirm the greenhouse effect. On the other hand, Norm Kalmanovitch of the FoS claims an apparent saturation of the greenhouse effect controlled by the physical properties of the CO2 molecule.

I have not found any published information that confirms Norm's theory. Would you be able to help me out?

Thanks in advance!


Derek L. Schweinsgruber, PhD 

P.S. Is the Cato Institute named after Cato the elder or Cato the younger? I remember Cato the elder well from my Latin classes. He was the more conservative one who was against the influence of Greek culture and pro destruction of Hannibal's northern African empire. He frequently added the following line to his speeches in the Roman senate: Ceterum censeo Carthaginem delendam esse.